Google's Android is on pace to compete head on with Apple's iOS next year when it comes to app downloads if recent download rates continue. 

?Looking at the over 50,000 applications that were added to Flurry's service over 2011, more apps were built for iOS than for Android,? said Peter Farago, vice president of marketing at Flurry Analytics, San Francisco.

 ?Next year, we think that downloads will be relatively even between the two platforms.
?At the moment, it's primarily a two-horse race,? he said. ?However, the platforms that we also believe hold some promise are Microsoft and Amazon.?

Loyal Android users
Mobile app downloads are up significantly for both iOS and Android devices this holiday season and are expected to total 1 billion for the period between Christmas Day and New Year?s Day, according to Flurry Analytics.

The Flurry report as well as a report from Fiksu Inc. point to the significant growth in app downloads over the past year with no end in sight.

?Among Fiksu's clients we currently see a greater volume of iOS app downloads than Android,? said Craig Palli, vice president of business development at Fiksu Inc., Boston. ?However, Android has been catching up at a steady rate.

?While we do not expect Android to overtake iOS during 2012, we certainly expect relative parity in that 12th month,? he said. ?Fueling this growth is the continued improvement and adoption of Android devices combined with Fiksu data that shows Android users are 2X as likely to become loyal users than iOS, thus representing value for mobile marketers.?

The number of daily app downloads more than doubled on Christmas day compared with the average for the rest of the month, according to Flurry. Between Dec. 1 and 20, daily downloads averaged 108 million but on Dec. 25, 242 million apps were downloaded by iOS and Android devices.

Flurry expects elevated download levels to continue through New Year?s Day and is predicting that a total of 1 billion apps will be downloaded between Christmas Day and New Year?s Day.

?The biggest news for marketers is that consumers - affluent, educated and engaged ones, who have a willingness and ability to pay - are flocking to iOS and Android devices and apps,? Mr. Farago said.

?Agencies, brands, marketers and advertisers have an opportunity to reach, engage and monetize these consumers like never before through applications.?

Lower costs
By operating system, Apple?s App Store is on pace to exceed 10 billion downloads in 2011, which will double the cumulative number of downloads earned across 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The Android Market also set records, more than tripling its life-to-date downloads of 3 billion, reached in May 2011. In December, Android will reach over 10 billion cumulative downloads.

New research from Fiksu Inc. also supports the significant growth in mobile app downloads, with growth beginning to accelerate in the fall after the iPhone 4S and iOS 5 updates were introduced.

?November was a tremendous opportunity for marketers seeking growth,? Mr. Palli said. ?Specifically, marketers were able to increase the number of users acquired while simultaneously decreasing the incremental cost per new user. 

?While one might expect increased download volume heading into the holiday season, the combination of increased volume and lower cost is less typical,? he said. ?This was likely driven by the October iPhone 4S and iOS 5 launch, which served as a catalyst for heightened user discovery. 

November saw a steady increase in demand for app downloads without any notable fluctuations in mobile app marketing costs, according to Fiksu. The volume peaked at 5.65 million downloads per day in November, a 15 percent increase over October?s record high of 4.91 million daily downloads.

In comparison, app download volumes in Nov. 2010 were 83 percent lower.

Device activations
Not surprisingly the number of iOS and Android mobile devices also grew in December, according to Flurry.

The number of iOS and Android daily device activations averaged 1.5 million between Dec. 1-20 but on Christmas Day, the number jumped 353 percent for a total of 6.8 million activations.

?We were surprised by just how large the spike of new device activations on Christmas day were for iOS and Android,? Mr. Farago said.?In years past, the percent increase was similar, but this is when fewer total devices were sold.

?The fact that device sales still grew so much over the more recent, much higher rate of device adoption, shows that we've hit the tipping point,? he said. ?Smartphones like iOS and Android have gone mainstream, and there is a lot more consumer demand than anyone might have imagined.?

Final Take
Chantal Tode is associate editor on Mobile Marketer, New York