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Wall Street sets eyes on mobile Internet. Beware the praise

Borrowing your watch to tell you the time is said to be a management consultant thing. But saying the obvious with an air of discovery is a Wall Street talent.

Last week Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker lavished praise on the mobile Internet: ?Mobile Internet usage is and will be bigger than most think,? Ms. Meeker told doting fans at the Web 2.0 Summit Oct. 20 in San Francisco.

For those with long memories, Ms. Meeker was one of the stars of the dot-com heyday. Her research, like many other analysts' in those days, was closely followed by media and investors.

However, for those who lived through those days and survived, Wall Street?s conflict of interest in pumping up companies via ?research? and press release for their IPO business still sears in the memory.

Indeed, these investment banks got away with weak regulatory slaps on the wrist for doing damage to the system by touting Internet companies whose business models were four words ? ?Let?s attract eyeballs first.? Beyond that, nothing.

And now here we are, happy that a ghost of Christmas past is telling the world that the mobile Internet is the next big thing. When the world already knew that two years ago ? ask Apple, Research In Motion, Nokia and the wireless carriers, and the countless legitimate industry analysts who have produced diligent research documenting the rise of the mobile Web.

But such is the fawning nature of Silicon Valley and its hype-minded conferences, bloggers and press that one pronouncement from Ms. Meeker and a 68-page, chart-riddled PowerPoint presentation is all it takes for the truth to sink in.

If Wall Street is eyeing yet again another gravy train, this is the closest inkling to it. Wall Street wants your dollars once more.

Surprisingly, Ms. Meeker?s research was spot on in its trend watch. She identified eight mobile Internet themes. Let?s reproduce them in their entirety:

1. Mobile Internet usage is and will be bigger than most think.

2. Apple mobile share should surprise on upside near-term.

3. Next-generation platforms (social networking + mobile) driving unprecedented change in communications + commerce.

4. Mobile in Japan + desktop Internet provide roadmaps for mobile growth + monetization.

5. 3G adoption/trends vary by geography.

6. Carriers in USA/Western Europe face surging network demand but uncertain economics.

7. Regulators can help advance/slow mobile Internet evolution.

8. Mobile-related share shifts will create/destroy material shareholder wealth.

Point 8 is what worries, especially if it ends up on a Wall Street PowerPoint presentation.

Please click here to download Ms. Meeker?s Oct. 20, 2009 presentation at the Web 2.0 Summit.