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Is the tide shifting away from Google's Android?

Apple has won an injunction banning sales of the Samsung Galaxy Nexus in the United States, a development that could have significant implications for the smartphone landscape if the filing holds up under appeal.

While the Galaxy Nexus is not a blockbuster device, the legal hits against Android are starting to stack up, with Apple having already won injunctions against HTC and Motorola in separate cases. While these suits have been directed at Android hardware manufacturers, taken together they could cause OEMs and wireless carriers to begin considering other smartphone options, weakening Android?s overall position in the market.

?While the injunction is directed against Samsung, all of these different patent cases are being brought against Android devices,? said Michael Morgan, analyst at ABI Research, New York . ?In the end, it seems it is really Android that is being hit by this.

?We are seeing the trajectory of the game changing,? he said. ?The tides are not flowing in Android?s favor.

?It doesn?t destroy Android but it changes the thinking about maybe wanting to start developing another OS in our portfolio as a hedge so we are not relying entirely on Android.?

Competitive advantages
The Galaxy Nexus is the first Android phone available in the U.S. running Android?s Ice Cream Sandwich. The fact that is has been found by the courts to be infringing Apple patents has broader implications because this may mean that Apple will make similar claims against Samsung?s Galaxy S series, which is doing quite well in the market.

Samsung has filed an appeal in the case.

This latest injunction follows Apple?s claim that certain voice search technologies used in its popular Siri personal assistant feature are being infringed by Samsung.

As a result of the injunction, Samsung and any other manufacturers using similar technology for Android phones will start to look for a way to redesign around the popular feature.

?These are important competitive advantages in smartphones,? Mr. Morgan said. ?If the Siri-like feature goes, it is going to further hinder Android?s ability to remain competitive.?

There are already 11 patents that have been decided in Apple?s favor in patent infringement cases, causing Android manufacturers to have to redesign around such popular functions as swipe to unlock and the way lists bounce when a user scrolls to the bottom.

Apple also won an injunction last week banning sales of the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 in the U.S.

?At the moment the phone war is going well for Apple and not so well for everyone else.," said Carl Howe, vice president of consumer research at Yankee Group, Boston.  "Apple has more proprietary patents - they are unique to Apple and there is no requirement that they share with others.

?This is not just Samsung?s problem ? this is an Android problem overall,? Mr. Howe said.

?If the appeals are held up, both Samsung and Google end up doing some real redesigns,? Mr. H said.

Implications for carriers
Samsung has taken a leadership role in the mobile phone landscape this year. However, with this injunction in place and Apple supposedly introducing the iPhone 5 in the fall, Samsung?s position could be in jeopardy.

The ban on the Samsung Galaxy Nexus could also have implications for carriers.

The carriers would love to have a third manufacturer other than Apple and Samsung with some heft in the market to drive competition.

Many carriers are already unhappy with Apple because of the high subsidies they have to pay to make the iPhone affordable to customers.

While Samsung currently manufacturers some of the best-selling Android phones, if its role were to be diminished because of the injunctions, wireless carriers might decide to create closer ties with LG and HTC to deliver solid Android phones.

?Carriers view Samsung as a strategic vendor that provides well-designed, well-differentiated devices,? Mr. Howe said. ?Certainly, it is the only major counter balance to Apple in the market right now.

The carriers would also like to see a third mobile operating system in the mix. If Android?s position is weakened as a result of these developments, this could be good news for Windows Phone and BlackBerry.

There might even be a growing opportunity for mobile operating systems built on HTML5 technology, such as Tizen and Firefox, which potentially give carriers more control over the content that is delivered to users.

?It might be creating a space for Firefox, Tizen and HTML5-based operating systems to be developed that may not have been there before,? ABI Research?s Mr. Morgan said.

?The dynamics now are making it more desirable to have that other OS now,? he said. ?The carriers have been looking for that third ecosystem.

Final Take
Chantal Tode is associate editor on Mobile Marketer, New York