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What will be the major trends in mobile marketing in 2010?

In 2010 brands will allocate larger portions of their digital media plan towards mobile to further capitalize on the most personal marketing medium out there.

Moxie Interactive, Millennial Media, 1020 Placecast and the Mobile Marketing Association expect growth in mobile in 2010. Augmented reality, applications and rich-media ads will likely be areas of focus in the new year.

?I believe that mobile Web and application advertising will still be the focus in 2010 and will have most of the attention of marketers next year,? said Federico Pisani Massamormile, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-based CEO of Hanzo Inc. and global chairman/interim CEO of the MMA.

Here are some of the trends that industry experts forecast in 2010:

Augmented reality
Augmented reality will likely gain traction in 2010, but will remain a bell and whistle compared to list and map view.

1020 Placecast believes that 2010 will be the year that this exciting technology begins to be adopted on mobile phones.

Augmented reality is the ability to merge a view of the physical world with enhanced data or imagery that is computer generated ? thereby providing a richer view of the real world.

Using the GPS, the camera and even the compass, your smartphone can sense what you are pointing at and show relevant data for that place, such as reviews for a restaurant or virtual signposts to direct you to a place.

Expect to see retailers and entertainment companies trying out ways of showcasing their brands with this niche, but exciting new technology. Although augmented reality will appear in more applications, consumers will still prefer the list and map versions to search results on a usage basis.

Growth of mobile Web
The U.S. mobile Web will reach nearly 100 million unique users per month in 2010, according to Millennial Media.

In 2009, the U.S. mobile Web grew at an average rate of 2 percent month over month, according to Nielsen.

At this rate, combined with the accelerated adoption of smartphones and mobile-specific sites, the mobile Web will reach more than one-half of the consumers on the wired Web.

GPS battery drain problem
Despite its much-hyped status as an uber-connected device, the iPhone has a major Achilles heel when it comes to location-based marketing.

A user has to turn on a location application and locate themselves to do anything meaningful ? like search for a nearby restaurant, bar or friend.

This is partly Apple?s business model, but mostly a hardware limitation that the GPS cannot operate all the time in the background - it drains the iPhone battery too quickly.

Contrast this to an automated service in which a consumer indicates what they are interested in, puts their phone in their pocket, and heads out to do whatever they would normally do in their day.

The phone can let a consumer know when they are near an experience that they are interested in without them having to initiate looking for it ? this happens automatically based on what the user has said they want.

Expect Apple to solve this hardware problem in 2010, said 1020 Placecast.

Mobile site and applications
Advertisers will invest significantly in site and application mobile destinations in 2010, according to Millennial Media.

In 2009, a clear majority of campaigns sent consumers to brands? persistent mobile sites and custom mobile applications.

In 2010, 50 percent of campaigns will direct users to a mobile site and 35-40 percent to a custom mobile application promoting their products and services via Apple, RIM, Android and other application storefronts.

A geo-fence is a virtual field around any location that is used to trigger a mobile marketing message to a user when they enter or exit the area.

1020 Placecast forecasts that 2010 is the year we will hear geo-fence become part of marketers? vocabulary.

Expect to see retailers take advantage of this capability in a variety of ways, from sending personalized messaging to consumers leaving a sporting event or concert, to blanketing a place like a beach or skateboard park on a Saturday.

Linking CRM databases into mobile marketing
Marketers generally are recognizing the uniquely personal relationships that consumers have with their mobile phones.

For retail marketers, combining this with the CRM data that they are collecting about their customers ? like past purchases and categories of interest ? offers the opportunity to deliver personalized messages when a user is near one of their stores.

In 2010, we will see retailers begin to take advantage of mobile CRM to extend their current data-driven marketing programs into mobile.

Some retailers will get it and others will falter. This will come down to execution and end-to-end integration.

New entrants into mobile
Advertisers, who previously relied on more traditional advertising channels, will increasingly allocate portions of their media spend to mobile in 2010, according to Millennial Media.

More than 25 percent of brands anticipate spending more than $5 million on mobile advertising in 2010, up from 12.5 percent spending more than $5 million in 2009.

The leading mobile advertising verticals will include even more aggressive budgets from the pharmaceutical, automotive, travel and retail verticals and will challenge entertainment, telecom and portals for premium placements.

Carriers to open up location
It is a widely suspected but little-understood fact that carriers are able to locate any phone, anywhere and anytime. This same capability can be turned outwards to enable consumers to opt-in and receive messages when they are in a place and at a time that makes sense.

For example, a consumer who likes to shop at a particular retailer could sign-up to receive alerts on their phone about special offers when they are near that store.

Up to now, the carriers have held onto this capability, hoping to charge marketers for every time that they want to locate one of their customers.

In 2010, expect at least one Tier 1 and one Tier 2 carrier to give users the ability to share this information with marketers with a different business model than a per-transaction charge that exists today, said 1020 Placecast.

This will enable marketers to deliver location-triggered programs to consumers who have asked to receive them.

Mobile triple play
Location x Relevancy x Immediacy = Mobile Triple Play in 2010, per Millennial Media.

Consumers will increase their average browsing time from the 4:40 (min:sec) average in 2009 to the 5:30 range, and average page views will increase from approximately 105 to 120 pages per month.

Relevancy becomes even more critical to engage these consumers. Advertisers will be increasingly drawn to mobile?s unique opportunity to reach and engage consumers with immediate and location-specific content.

Coupons to incorporate time and context
The recession has resurrected the coupon as a way for retailers to drive traffic into their stores.

There is clearly demand from consumers to take advantage of location-triggered promotions, sales, and coupons and to learn about entertainment opportunities around them.

As price sensitivity begins to wane and consumers look for more meaningful ways to interact with the brands that they care about, 2010 will bring a reinvention of the coupon specific to interests of consumers as retailers promote PC-Web and mobile Web destinations where consumers can opt-in for specials and coupons.

Long live the ad networks
Millennial Media believes that advertisers will increasingly buy audiences over buying media properties in 2010.

Advertisers will leverage mobile ad networks? ability to create and target custom audiences at scale.

Gone will be the days where carrier, country and demographic targeting will alone satisfy advertiser needs.

Mobile will be called to task on privacy in 2010. Reputable mobile ad networks will follow guidelines set by industry trade associations and standard bodies.

Offering opt-out capabilities to protect personal identification information will be an imperative and will propel the roll-out of more contextual and behavioral consumer ad targeting via mobile.

Mobile commerce and retail will grow
According to Deloitte?s 24th Annual Holiday Survey, of the mobile shoppers identified in their survey: 55 percent said they will use their mobile device to find store locations, 45 percent to research prices, 40 percent to find product information, 32 percent to find discounts and coupons and 25 percent to make purchases.

Mobile-driven retail activity and commerce will continue to increase with retailers leveraging new mobile-specific technologies to convert browsers into buyers.

Demand and supply
Demand will exceed supply in some areas and supply will exceed demand in others, forecasts Millennial Media.

The demand for preroll and other advanced mobile video advertising solutions will exceed available inventory in 2010.

Supply exceeds demand in application mobile advertising and the number one priority of publishers and application developers will be to find ways to improve the quality of their inventory to better meet advertiser needs.

Apple will face credible competitors in 2010 as the Android and RIM developer platforms continue to flourish.

In the gaming applications category, Android out-performed both Apple and RIM with a leading 1.8 percent CTR, while RIM remained a close competitor to Android on all categories.

Frequency capping and share of voice
Advertisers will demand 100 percent share of voice on the mobile screen and the vast majority of premium publishers and ad networks will oblige.

Frequency capping will become an imperative to avoid consumers tiring of repetitive ads.

Unique user identification will become a best practice standard of the leading mobile ad networks and analytics firms.

Location data will begin to be mined as a rich new source of insights that marketers can harness to improve the effectiveness of their efforts.

We are now able to build place profiles ? intelligence derived from the businesses and points of interest for a particular location ? which reveal what is available to consumers when they are in that place.

Layer on temporal elements (like weather and traffic), census data, demographics and psychographics, CRM, and aggregate mobile usage data, and a rich picture of that place emerges which is dynamic, and which marketers can use for the delivery of effective marketing programs.

For example, marketers mining this data will begin to use it to create automated services that can make recommendations when a consumer is in a particular place and time, and tailor the message based on these and other factors.

Expect to see the first real-world executions derived from this data ? done right, it will be perceived as useful for the consumer, and will build brand loyalty and increased sales for the marketer.

Mobile search is a category that will continue to grow in 2010 and beyond. Expect more localization and more businesses related to mobile search.

Mobile search will become a high driver of in-store traffic, according to Moxie Interactive.

?Overall across the world I see more brands spending more money in digital in general in 2010,? the MMA?s Mr. Massamormile said. ?I see more money in mobile specifically, more so in the U.S. than Europe, Latin America and Asia, but I see this happening across the world in 2010.?

Dan Butcher contributed reporting to this story.