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CTIA keynote: Looming spectrum crisis is biggest threat to future of mobile

LAS VEGAS - The United States is at the forefront of the mobile broadband revolution, according to the CTIA keynote address of two AT&T executives, although continued investment and innovation is necessary for the nation to stay No. 1.

Steve Largent, president/CEO of CTIA-The Wireless Association, Washington, thanked the FCC, saying that the commission?s recently released national broadband plan is a good step in the right direction. The plan provides a blueprint for unleashing more broadband spectrum to spur economic growth and avoid the looming spectrum crunch caused by the explosion of mobile data consumption.

?The U.S. is leading the mobile broadband revolution,? said Ralph de la Vega, president/CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets. ?We?re leading in 3G subscribers, WiFi, investment, next generation networks, smarphones, applications, emerging devices and machine-to-machine communications.

?During the worst economic downturn of our lifetime, the U.S. wireless industry added a quarter of a million jobs and contributed $20 billion in taxes and fees the industry pays each year,? he said. ?As a country we need to make sure we keep our lead and even add to it, and we have to get government policy right to encourage investment and growth.

?The CTIA is all about leadership in mobile broadband, past future mandate we will continue to lead."

Mr. de la Vega said mobile broadband is transforming how we live and work, and that the U.S. is leading the world in delivering on the promise of providing mobile broadband to customers.

?The U.S. wireless industry has built an infrastructure that makes the U.S. the clear leader in mobile broadband by any measure,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?We have the infrastructure to lead the world with the most advanced forms of mobile broadband networks.

?U.S. is leading in mobile broadband investments,? he said.

U.S. carriers are projected to spend $45 billion in total cap-ex in 2010, of which $22-23 billion is projected to be wireless cap-ex in 2010.

?Mobile broadband drives fiber investments and wireline broadband investments enhance mobile broadband,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?Carriers have been able to continue to make these investmests because for the most part the U.S. government has kept the industry free of heavy-handed regulation.?

Mr. de la Vega cited a number of statistics where the U.S. is in the lead.

The U.S is on top in the number of 3G subscribers, with 18 percent of all 3G subscribers worldwide.

The U.S. leads in the most advanced 3G networks, HSPA and EVDO, with 33 percent of global subscribers.

The U.S. led the world in 3G net adds in 2009, through 3Q, with about one in five new 3G subscribers worldwide.

The U.S. is also significantly ahead in WiFi, according to AT&T. The U.S. has twice as many public WiFi hotspots as the next closest county?70,000.

?WiFi is complementary to mobile broadband and enhances ubiquity of coverage,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?WiFi usage is soaring in the U.S.

?The U.S. is also leading in the commercialization of next-generation mobile broadband networks,? he said. ?U.S. GSM operators are deploying advanced HSPA to give customers 3G+ performance now.?

The U.S. is expected to be the first country to deploy LTE on a wide commercial scale, and faster networks put the U.S. in the leadership position in smartphone sales, according to AT&T.

U.S. smartphone sales in 2010 are expected to be more than twice the next closest country, which is China, representing a compounded growth rate of 28 percent. AT&T estimates that 53 million smartphones will be sold in the U.S. in 2010, compared to 25 million in China.

Because of this, the U.S. is driving global application growth.

?There were more than a billion application downloads last year in the United States, and that is simply amazing,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?Apps are helping to drive the sales of smartphones, and vice versa.?

Application store proliferation will also help drive growth, with new stores from Google?s Android, Palm and Microsoft?s Windows Mobile. Carrier initiatives will also broaden application distribution, with the formation of wholesale application communities stemming from AT&T?s partnership with Qualcomm and Sprint?s partnership with GetJar.

Storm clouds gathering
All of this increased consumption of smartphones and applications means more consumption of mobile data and more of a strain on carrier network capacity.

?The U.S. at an inflection point?the U.S. wireless industry is a virtuous cycle of investment and innovation, and spectrum is the lifeblood of this industry,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?Smarter devices lead to a proliferation of applications, which in turn drives more consumer demand for spectrum.

?I?m proud to say this cycle works exceptionally well in the U.S.?it works like an ecosystem with each element in balance, and we?re seeing unprecedented demand from consumers,? he said. ?Consumers have gotten a taste of what the U.S. broadband ecosystem can deliver and now they have an insatiable appetite.

?Mobile broadband growth outpaces every other platform,? he said.

Cisco projects global mobile traffic to increase 40 times from last year to 2014, 108 percent CAGR growth from 2009 to 2014.

Pew estimates that by 2020, mobile devices will be the primary Internet devices throughout the world.

?Consumers flock to mobile broadband and love it, but how do we deal with that and meet that demand?? Mr. de la Vega said. ?There is no silver bullet, no single answer to meet the demand for mobile broadband, but we need to find sustainable models, meet demand while allowing industry players to realize profits from the growth of wireless technologies.?

One of the keys to a sustainable model is increasing available spectrum. The FCC has said that the biggest threat to the future of mobile in America is the looming spectrum crisis.

?The industry was encouraged by the FCC?s proposal to free up 500 MHz of spectrum, but deploying new spectrum could take years, and consumer demand won?t wait,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?We have to take other steps now to accelerate network efficiencies and deploy the next generation of wireless technology.?

LTE could potentially surpass 2.5 times the efficiency of HSPA. But even with 4G technologies, it is still not enough to keep pace with consumer demand for mobile broadband, according to AT&T.

Another key to a sustainable model is capitalizing on WiFi and Femtocells to redirect customer demand. The wireless industry should ensure seamless connectivity to the best available network.

?We must all work together as an ecosystem to ensure network efficiency, ensuring application efficiencies to conserve spectrum, which must be a priority for entire ecosystem,? Mr. de la Vega said. ?Efforts are underway but they must be accelerated.?

Wireless growing fast
According to CTIA, there are 285.6 million-plus wireless subscribers in the U.S.

Wireless carriers made $152.5 billion in revenue in 2009, up $4.5 billion from 2008.

Wireless services revenue was $41.3 billion in 2009, up 28 percent from 2008, making up 29 percent of ARPU.

Text messaging traffic in 2009 reached 1.6 trillion messages, representing 50 percent year-to-year growth.

In 2009, 34.5 billion MMS messages were sent in the U.S., a 130 percent increase.

?This is one of the most exciting times this industry has seen,? said Randall Stephenson, chairman of the board and president/CEO of AT&T Inc. ?The level of growth we?ve seen due to mobile broadband networks is unprecedented, which for this industry is really saying something.

?The mobile Internet is revolutionizing how business now gets done, how we get news and entertainment, how education, healthcare and government services are deployed,? he said. ?Mobile broadband is expanding more than twice as fast as fixed broadband, and the U.S. is leading the way in mobile broadband around the world.

?Mobile broadband stands to be this decade?s economic growth engine, driving investment and job creation.?

Mr. Stephenson said that there have been a lot of predictions floating around about the growth potential of mobile broadband, and while most are very impressive, analysts consistently underestimate the growth potential of wireless connectivity.

?Take all those rosy projections and think bigger about what?s going to happen,? Mr. Stephenson said. ?Last year the global economy shrank 5 percent, but the mobile data industry grew by 20 percent.

?Over the past three years alone, mobile data consumption has increased 3,000 percent, and for AT&T that number is 5,000 percent,? he said. ?It?s an incredible growth opportunity for the entire industry, but also a challenge we need to meet so we continue to grow and deliver the immense potential of mobile broadband.

?Innovation is happening in every corner of this industry, companies pushing the boundaries a little bit further, and making it all possible are our fast broadband networks, which are becoming even faster.?
Telefonica

The CTIA?s Mr. Largent and Inaki Urdangarin, chairman of Telefonica Internacional USA Inc., announced the formation of the Latin America common short code program.

The initiative will provide brands with the opportunity to reach more than 400 million consumers in more than 17 countries via SMS, creating the world?s largest mobile marketing tool, according to Mr. Largent.

?Thanks for CTIA for making the common short code such a great success,? Mr. Urdangarin said. ?We?ll be able to communicate with more than 12 percent of the worldwide population like never before.?

Spain-based carrier Telefonica has more than 260 million customers in 25 countries on 4 continents.

The company?s carrier brands include Movistar, Atento and Terra, and it has alliances with Telecom Italia and China Unicom. It is the No. 2 telecom operator in the world by enterprise value behind AT&T.

Samsung
The following keynote was a steady build-up to the official announcement of Samsung?s upcoming Android-based smartphone, the Galaxy S.

In 2009, 178 million units of smartphones were shipped, according to Samsung.

That number is expected to more than double to by 2013 to 393 million units. In that year, more than one fourth of all handsets will be smartphones, and half of them will be first-time smartphone buyers, according to Samsung.

?We?re focused on the U.S. smartphone market,? said J.K. Shin, president of mobile communications business at Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. ?U.S. consumers want to watch high-quality video content on their phones just like they can on a TV or computer, they want easy multitasking, they are demanding GPS services such as real-time traffic reports and directions, mobile wallet, email and social networking on a single device.?

Mr. Shin went on to expound upon the principles of Smart Life, keeping consumers connected, informed and entertained no matter where they are, and the three elements of a smartphone that must be optimized?screen, speed and content.

Then to much fanfare, the big screens lit up with pictures of his company?s new Android-based smartphone.

?In the race to redefine the smartphone, the starting gun has just been fired, and the Samsung Galaxy S is already standing at the finish line,? Mr. Shin said.

Mr. Shin unveils the Samsung Galaxy S:

Mr. Largent serves as master-of-ceremonies: