The growing popularity of netbooks -- smaller, lighter and cheaper laptops with almost similar Web capabilities as big-screen versions -- is set to change the world of mobile marketing and media.

New analysis from ABI Research claims that nearly 35 million netbooks will ship this year, reaching an estimated 139 in 2013. If proved true, then the smartphone and netbook will become the two key screens for mobile marketing, affecting everything from targeted online and mobile advertising and marketing to email, video and social media.

Brands such as Acer, Hewlett-Packard and Asus have already launched netbooks priced between $300 and $400. Dell is expected to debut its own version, although there is no inkling that Apple may come out with its netbook.

In this Q&A, Philip Solis, ABI principal analyst for mobile broadband in Oyster Bay, NY, discusses the effect netbooks will have on mobile marketing, mobile broadband, evolving consumer behavior with mobile computing, carrier participation in this trend, Microsoft Windows and computer makers' profit margins. Overall, it might mean redefining mobile marketing and media to include netbooks in addition to mobile phones. The interview:

What explains the surge in sales of netbooks?
Most of what consumers do with the computers today is tied to the Internet, and the most important application is the mobile browser.

Even email is has been moving away from the use of an email client towards Web-based mail, and instant messaging clients towards Web-based messaging.

Also, both email and instant messaging has been shifting towards social networking which is done through a Web browser.

If most people are using a PC to get on the Internet, then a netbook would be an appropriate substitution for a laptop, or it would be an appropriate secondary device to purchase. What's more is their convenience.

A netbook is easier to carry out of the home because it is smaller and lighter, and it is also easier to tote around the home.

Also, some people are buying them to use for email and presentations when they travel for business so they can travel light.

The popularity of netbooks is possible because of their price range -- mostly between $300 and $400, so far.

In addition, mobile operators are offering deals where the subscriber pays more for mobile broadband service in order to pay for a netbook over two years, and other mobile operators are subsidizing the netbook with a two-year contract for service.

Sales of netbooks last year? Anticipated sales this year and in 2010?
Sales of netbooks last year were about 15 million units.

ABI Research expects netbooks' sales to more than double to about 35 million units in 2009, and for that to continue to climb in 2010.

Some of these will be purchased as secondary devices to get on the Internet by consumers who would not have bought a second laptop.

Some of them will be purchased by consumers as a replacement for an older laptop instead of buying a new laptop.

Today's netbooks resemble small laptops -- they practically are except that they have processors that are less powerful.

The processor is still an x86 processor, which means that it can run Windows in addition to running Linux. Intel and Via Technologies provide these processors.

Starting later this year the market will also include netbooks that use ARM processors from companies like ARM, Freescale, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments.

These processors cannot run Windows. They will run Linux and also smartphone-type operating systems like Android, Limo, Windows CE or Windows Mobile, and perhaps others like Palm's WebOS.

These netbooks will not be focused on being just like a laptop, but rather they will focus on Internet applications and thus serve the need of most netbooks purchasers just fine.

They will also have more battery life and cost less than today's netbooks. These netbooks will expand the market for consumers looking for a netbooks that do not require Windows.

Which brands lead in netbook sales?
Acer and Asus have been the two main leaders in the netbook space.

These two companies have been among the earliest to market, giving them a head start in developing products and gaining mindshare of consumers.

Netbooks cost less, which means lower margins for manufacturers. Won't that affect their bottom line?
Margins are tighter for netbooks than they are for laptops and that has become an issue.

But the growth potential is high, so either these companies participate in the market or lose revenue to their competitors.

As the market takes shape, there will be opportunities to improve margins as the cost for components comes down with increased volume. This could lead to better margins.

Apple would be devastated with this trend, don't you think? Unless it has its own netbook due out soon?
I do not think Apple would be devastated with this trend.

Apple holds a smaller market share of the PC market, but has a very loyal fan base.

In general, people looking for a fully capable PC will not be served well by netbooks.

Video and graphics editing, gaming, and any other processor-intesive applications are not well suited for the lower-power, smaller-screen size and lower-resolution screens of netbooks.

In a recent survey, we found that 79 percent of consumers in the United States viewed netbooks as a secondary device as opposed to something that could replace their PC.

That being said, I do believe that Apple could find success if it entered the market with a netbook using the same scaled-down OS X it has on its iPhone and iPod touch products.

However, Apple is either afraid of diluting their brand with less-capable netbooks or has underestimated how quickly the netbook market was going to take off like most people did.

What does this uptick in netbook popularity say about consumers and mobile computing?
Consumers continue to use the Internet for more and more things and would like to access the Internet wherever and whenever.

Newer, better smartphones are helping them do that, but their screen sizes and thumb keyboards or virtual keyboards are too small if a lot of typing is required.

Laptops increasing have mobile broadband options and USB modems are also widely available. This lets them connect to the Internet from anywhere. Their screens are nice and large and their keyboards are perfect, but they are relatively large and heavy devices.

Netbooks sit somewhere in between that, although closer to laptops.

They have keyboards that are nearly full size and screens that are much larger than that of smartphones. They are smaller and much lighter than latpops. They are increasingly being offered with mobile broadband options.

Netbooks are being viewed as mobile computing devices that strike the right balance of size and weight with portability and usability.

How will this affect mobile marketing?
Since netbooks are increasingly being offered with mobile broadband and increasingly coming with GPS as well, these devices certainly bring opportunities around location-aware services and advertising.

They will used while walking the way smarpthones and mobile Internet devices will be used, but they certainly will be used on-the-go more often than laptops.

We see two trends here converging: laptops getting smaller and smartphones gaining characteristics of laptops. Indicative of something?
Many trends are happening all around one focal point, which is mobile access to the Internet.

3G data speeds keep increasing, 4G is being deployed, and the whole range of mobile devices is evolving.

No matter what the device, the Web browser is a key application that is becoming increasingly capable.

Mobile devices, in general, are expanding from just cellular handsets to include laptops, netbooks, mobile Internet devices (MIDs) and even mobile consumer electronics devices -- things like game devices, portable media players, cameras and camcorders are gaining mobile broadband connections for data-only to increase their usefulness.

In this context, smartphones with better browsers, netbooks, and MIDs are filling the need to be able to access the Internet from anywhere on just the right device, depending on the person's preferences and needs.

So is this how the Internet will be consumed, via the smartphone and netbook channels, while on the go?
Simply, yes.

Nothing can fully replace the PC when at home. On-the-go, various devices will fill the need to get on the Internet.

How should marketers and advertisers react to this phenomenon?
The fact that Internet access is being done more and more from anywhere means that advertisers have to take this into account.

Location-based advertising is one part of this.

Properly done, mobile advertising can be very useful to people who are already searching for places and using services in the context of their current location and next destination.

Is there anything that can impede the quick adoption of netbooks in this economy?
If the economy were to get much worse, many things would be greatly affected.

That aside, I think that netbooks could fare better in this economy if more people accept the lower-power netbook as an adequate way to replace a dying or dead PC.

This would be more affordable than buying a replacement PC and would allow the user to still get on the Internet to communicate, pay bills, find important information, or whatever else they need to do.