Google?s Android will become the most popular mobile operating system in the world by the end of this year and will account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by next year, according to Gartner Inc.

The research firm projects that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units this year, a 57.7 percent increase from last year. Gartner also predicts that sales of open OS devices will represent 26 percent of all mobile handset sales this year, and the firm expects them to exceed the 1 billion mark by 2015, when they will account for 47 percent of the total mobile device market.

?Whenever we talk with a company that wants to mobilize the business or reach the mobile consumer, we tell them they are going to definitely have to look at all of the top platforms in a business-to-consumer situation in order to reach the widest number of consumers,? said Roberta Cozza, Egham, England-based principal analyst at Gartner.

?These OSs are becoming systems consisting of applications, content and services, and there is definitely more power put in the hands of the companies that are controlling these platforms that end up in the hands of millions of consumers,? she said. ?We are not really talking about OS providers?we are really talking about ecosystem owners, which are also becoming very relevant as brands themselves.

?That is still happening at the high end of the market, and we are starting to see consumers more aware of Android as a brand.?

Headquartered in Stamford, CT, Gartner is an information technology research and advisory company.

OS wars
Ms. Cozza said that by 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized.

As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers, per Ms. Cozza said.

Android?s position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets, according to Gartner.

The firm predicts that Apple?s iOS will remain the second-largest platform worldwide through 2014 despite its market share deceasing slightly after 2011.

This is based on Gartner?s assumption that Apple will want to maintain profit margins rather than pursuing market share by lowering its price points. This will continue to limit adoption in emerging regions, per Gartner.

Apple?s market share will peak this year, with volume growth significantly above the market average driven by increased reach in mature markets such as the U.S. and Western Europe.

The market share of Research In Motion?s BlackBerry will decline from this year through 2015 due to stronger competition in the consumer sector and increased competition in the business market.

Gartner has factored in RIM?s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX, which is expected to debut next year with the unveiling of the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet.

Ms. Cozza said this transition makes sense, because RIM can create a consistent experience going from smartphones to tablets with a single developer community and?given that QNX as a platform brings more advanced features than the classic BlackBerry OS?it can enable more competitive smartphone products.

Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Microsoft?s Windows Phone into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of next year, helping the platform to become the third-largest OS worldwide by 2013.

Although Gartner revised its forecast of Windows Phone?s market share upward due to Microsoft?s alliance with Nokia, the projections for WP are considerably less than what Symbian had achieved in the past. Translation: Nokia is still faced with an upward battle, especially in North America.

Ms. Cozza said that new device types will widen ecosystems, and that the growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created.

?By 2015, we see Windows Phone emerging as the second-largest OS, just below Android, Ms. Cozza said. ?Apple?s iOS will continue to focus on the high end, while with Nokia, Windows Phone will potentially be able to reach lower price points.

?Nokia will have to reach the same price points that Symbian has been, and they will work with Microsoft to achieve that?if they execute well, there is potential for Nokia?s Windows Phone-based devices to achieve more volume,? she said. ?Android is already No. 1 this year, and by next year, it will grow to command nearly 50 percent of the market.

?We?re seeing a lot more commitment to HTML5, but possibly this is something that still will take some time?it definitely has great potential in the future, as it is better for developers to be able to do the work and publish it on every platform, but despite industry support, we will still have to wait some time.?

Final Take
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