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What would the Google-Verizon deal mean for mobile marketing?

Google and Verizon Wireless are said to be nearing a deal that would add the Internet giant's search interface to the carrier's mobile devices, thus opening up the mobile marketing space.

The agreement, while it has not been finalized, is said to be far-reaching and would include a revenue-sharing arrangement. Analysts are speculating that this could jump-start the stagnant mobile search industry and also benefit mobile marketers.

"If this deal were to go through, it would be a good sign of Verizon's willingness to collaborate and improve the value of their off-deck experience," said Nic Covey, Chicago-based director of insights at Nielsen Mobile.

"Potentially this could be an acknowledgement that to survive they're not going to be able to go it alone from a mobile content standpoint," he said.

A Google-Verizon Wireless partnership could create a one-stop shop for consumers wanting to find Internet sites, ringtones or entertainment such as music and video.

"Leveraging the No. 1 mobile search provider and bringing Google into their on-portal experience is a great way to help them stay relevant in an off-deck environment," Mr. Covey said.

"This deal will have to lead other carriers to open up, not just search but all mobile content types, to make sure they're more than just a dumb pipe," he said.

There is speculation that Google may be seeking similar deals with other major carriers.

"I would be surprised if the deal were exclusive with Verizon," Mr. Covey said. "Why would Google be satisfied with just one-quarter of the U.S. carrier market?"

Nielsen's Mobile Search Report says that although Yahoo has the leading brand position in overall mobile Web use, Google has been a powerhouse in mobile search (see story).

Nielsen found that 61 percent of mobile Internet searchers say they primarily use Google, ahead of Yahoo, which can claim 18 percent of mobile searchers.

Forty percent of SMS searchers say they primarily use Google, ahead of Yahoo, which can claim 27 percent of SMS searchers.

"Yahoo Mail is the No. 1 mobile Web site, but Yahoo is not the leader in mobile search," Mr. Covey said. "Yahoo extends beyond search into entertainment, sports news, et cetera, but when you look at just mobile search, the success of Google's SMS and mobile Web search have propelled them to the leading position in mobile search.

"Yahoo has done a great job building a multidimensional presence on the mobile deck, and it'll be interesting to see how Yahoo's on-deck presence will be affected by a partnership such as this," he said.

"Making Yahoo Mail available to carrier portals really benefitted Yahoo, and Google has some catching up to do, so this deal with Verizon could be a big step in that direction."

Data from the inaugural edition of the Crisp Wireless Index shows that there was a 24 percent increase in traffic across mobile Web sites in the Crisp Wireless Mobile Publisher Network (see story).

Nielsen Mobile estimates that at least 50 million U.S. mobile subscribers search for things using their phone.

Nielsen Mobile found that mobile searchers users still rely on their carrier's deck for mobile search.

Per the researcher, 13.1 million mobile-phone consumers say they navigate to search through their carrier portal and 8.2 million say they use a search box branded by their carrier.

SMS search is currently as popular as these carrier deck methods. Nielsen Mobile says that 13.1 million mobile data users search for things using SMS text search services such as Google SMS and 4Info.

As for Verizon Wireless, its subscribers make up 26 percent of the active mobile search market.

Thirty-six percent of Verizon Wireless data consumers use some mobile search functionality, including directory services such as Google's voice-activated 800-GOOG-411.

Sixteen percent of Verizon Wireless data users still use 411 functionality, while 11 percent use the carrier's portal and navigate the browser to search and 9 percent go off deck to search the mobile Web.

Google has also quietly introduced a mobile interface called LCB that is more of a browsing tool rather than a search tool (see story).

"It's becoming clear to Verizon and the other carriers that consumers are increasingly aware of off-deck content," Mr. Covey said.

For example, 9 percent of Verizon Wireless data users use SMS text-message search services, while 6 percent of Verizon data users search through a branded carrier portal such as Verizon's Get It Now.

However, Verizon Wireless' reluctance to adopt devices on Google's Android platform has been a sticking point between the two companies.

"Android is a source of contention between the two, but this partnership could leave the door open for Verizon developing devices for the Android platform," Mr. Covey said.

The deal comes at time when carriers are still trying to figure out if and how advertising will be a major revenue source for them.

A respected management consultancy expects 60 percent annual growth in mobile advertising over the next five years, making that channel the next major digital media platform for brands to target customers (see story).

While it is unclear how the revenue sharing between Verizon Wireless and Google will work, a joint mobile advertising venture could become a cash cow.

"One could foresee a deal that would allow Verizon some of the mobile advertising revenue and further monetize the advertising opportunity mobile search represents," Mr. Covey said. "If the advertising revenue is shared, Verizon could really stand to benefit by building off of Google's ad revenue.

"Verizon hasn't been in the business, and Google has, and this would be one way for the carrier to leave ad sales and content development up to the experts," he said.

Whatever the specifics of the agreement, it would have a huge effect on the other carriers and mobile marketers.

"What it means is that an ad proprietor with whom they've become accustomed to working will serve as even more of a connection point to the third screen," Mr. Covey said. "A deal such as this will make mobile marketing even easier by reducing the barriers to mobile advertising, which is good for everyone involved.

"For marketers this is a really positive step forward," he said.