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Has Android?s smartphone market share topped out?

While the number of Android devices being activated on a daily basis continues to grow, reportedly reaching 900,000 recently, the rate of acceleration is leveling off.

Google reportedly said this week that Android activations have reached 900,000, a number that is significant in that it reflects how big and far-reaching the Android ecosystem is. The news is especially noteworthy in light of the fact that Apple is introducing a revamped maps services, which could impact how many iOS users access Google maps going forward.

?In a sense, the rate of activations is starting to level off a little,? said Michael Morgan, analyst at ABI Research, New York.

?Android has reached the prime areas already and now it is more about the growth of the smartphone market at large, which is still growing pretty aggressively,? he said. ?We might see 40 percent growth this year.?

?Even though Android is around 50 percent market share, I don?t see the market growing to 75 percent. It will level off and start to hover in around 55 to 60 percent going forward.?

The dominant platform
Android?s daily activations are up from 850,000 a few months ago and from around 500,000 a year ago.

In 2010, Android?s growth rate was around 86 percent and in 2011, around 70 percent. While the growth rate is expected to be slower this year, the numbers are still pretty significant and reflect the continued growth in smartphone penetration.

The number of daily activations for Android is meaningful for marketers in that it shows just how many consumers out there are interested in mobile experiences that are more unlocked and less controlled than with iOS.

?Android has firmly established itself as the dominant platform,? Mr. Morgan said. ?Regardless of those that want to have a completely controlled ecosystem, there are even more that are happy to take it and do what they want with it.

Android has not revealed how the number breaks down in terms of smartphones versus tablets.

Shipments of Android smartphones increased 145 percent during the first quarter of 2012 and the OS had a 59 percent share of smartphones globally, according to recent data from IDC.

Android 2.3 vs. 4.0
Despite the growth, Android is facing some challenges.

Some of the mid-tier handset makers are having trouble making any money from Android and with being able to differentiate their handsets given how many different manufacturers are in the Android space.

?A lot of mid-tier Android OEMs are having trouble with profitability and differentiation,? Mr. Morgan said. ?More and more it seems that Android is being lifted on the back of Samsung.?

The numbers for Android point to the large addressable customer base marketers can reach by marketing via Android devices. While the number of different kinds of devices is an issue, marketers are still able to reach approximately 20 percent of the Android customer base by targeting marketing to Android 2.3 on Samsung devices.

?Marketers can have a large, addressable market without having to do too many tweaks or changes,? Mr. Morgan said.

?A lot of marketers are going with 2.3 instead of building out 4.0 stuff,? he said. ?I expect to see over 2012 that 4.0 will get more of a market share drive.?