Now that the antitrust case against the proposed AT&T/T-Mobile USA deal has been postponed, the question is will AT&T seek to restructure the deal to increase its chances of approval or will it walk away and look to gain more spectrum elsewhere?

AT&T bought itself some time to figure out how to proceed with its $39 billion proposed deal to buy T-Mobile USA when a United States District Judge agreed to temporarily postpone an antitrust case brought by the Department of Justice to determine if the deal meets antitrust laws.  AT&T now has until Jan. 12 to file a report explaining whether it plans to proceed with the deal as it is currently structured ? which seems unlikely at this point - or if it plans to pursue a different transaction involving T-Mobile.

?The idea of merging the two companies into one big AT&T is pretty much done at this point,? said Carl Howe, research director at Yankee Group, Boston.

?This is a significant blow to AT&T because it will cost them $4 to $6 billion to get out of the deal,? he said. ?That is a significant blow but it is not a fatal blow for AT&T.

?It certainly says that their plan for establishing themselves as the largest carrier in the U.S. has been put on hold at least for the short term.

New year, new deal
AT&T needs a ruling from the court on the antitrust issue as well as approval from the Federal Communications Commission in order for the deal to be completed.

This is just the latest signal that AT&T is facing significant hurdles to getting the deal approved.

Last month, AT&T removed the deal from consideration by the FCC following a request from the FCC for a hearing to determine why the deal is in the public?s interest. That decision prompted the government to say it would move to stay or dismiss the lawsuit with the postponement of the antitrust following soon after. 

The Jan. 12 report will need to address the status of the FCC case as well as a timetable for seeking the necessary approval.

?Once they pulled the FCC application, this was a done deal ? with no application in front of the FCC, there is no merger,? Mr. Howe said.

?This is really pulling everything back and saying we?ll resume again in January if we have a new proposal,? he said.

?This proves that AT&T can read the handwriting on the wall, that the deal was not going to happen without substantial changes. They now have some breathing room to figure out which changes might work.?

Give it another go
AT&T agreed to buy T-Mobile for $39 billion in March 2011. The proposed deal has met with significant opposition, including from wireless carriers and others because of how much spectrum AT&T would own as a result.

If the deal does not go through or if it pushes past the original March 20 deadline, Deutsche Telekom, T-Mobile?s parent company, stands to gain $3 billion in cash, a roaming agreement with AT&T and the transfer of spectrum.

The postponement suggests that AT&T is going to look for alternatives, including seeing whether Deutsche Telekom will release them for the deal and discuss another deal.

?AT&T is committed to working with Deutsche Telekom to find a solution that is in the best interests of our respective customers, shareholders and employees," said AT&T in a statement. "We are actively considering whether and how to revise our current transaction to achieve the necessary regulatory approvals so that we can deliver the capacity enhancements and improved customer service that can only be derived from combining our two companies' wireless assets.?

AT&T may also be considering concessions that would allow the merger to go through, such as selling spectrum.

Whatever AT&T comes up with, it is likely to include T-Mobile playing a bigger role going forward than in the previous deal.

?Anything that eliminates T-Mobile from the market is not likely to pass muster,? Mr. Howe said. ?The lawsuit that the Department of Justice filed basically said, ?Hey, you are eliminating someone who is good for consumers and good for pricing.? I don?t think they are going to allow that to happen.

?I think we will see them try at least one more proposal,? he said. ?My guess is that it would involve something like retaining the T-Mobile brand as a sub brand of AT&T.?

Final Take
Chantal Tode is associate editor on Mobile Marketer, New York